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Census data:
What counties grew the most in Utah in 2022?

March 30, 2023

SALT LAKE CITY — A new county emerged as the fastest growing in Utah, according to new population estimates data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tooele County, at 4.2%, led all 29 of the state’s counties in percentage growth between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, besting Daggett County’s 3.8% increase, according to the bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates. Utah County, which led the state in that category in the 2021 report, retained its title as the state leader in absolute growth, adding over 16,000 new residents to push the countywide estimate over 700,000 people for the first time.

The report adds that Salt Lake County remains Utah’s most populated county with nearly 1.19 million residents, even though it was one of only three counties to lose residents last year. However, local experts say that differences in how the Census Bureau and how the Utah Population Committee calculate data may explain why the trends are vastly different from a state report that came out in December.

Utah’s growth in 2022

The Census Bureau initially reported in late December that Utah’s growth slowed down a bit in 2022. The Beehive State gained about 41,687 residents from July 2021 to July 2022, a 1.2% increase. That was enough to land 10th in percentage increase among the 50 states. Utah led the country in percentage growth between the 2010 and 2020 censuses and placed second in the 2021 estimate.

Utah counties cracked the top 10 in either absolute or percentage growth this year, according to the report. Tooele County’s 4.2% jump was no match for Whitman County in eastern Washington, which rose 10.1% over the past year. Daggett (3.8%), Iron and Washington (3.2% each), and Juab (3.1%) counties rounded out Utah’s top five.

Utah County’s absolute growth of 16,628 people helped its population grow by 2.4%. Washington (6,204), Tooele (3,200), Weber (2,973) and Cache (2,744) counties rounded out the top five, according to the Census Bureau.

“Even though the growth has slowed a little bit, we still have the same trend of Utah County and Washington County really driving the statewide growth,” said Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, as she reviewed the data. “Those two counties account for more than half of the statewide growth, so those are counties that we’re always watching.”

While the growth slowed down a bit, 25 of Utah’s 29 counties, or 86%, experienced natural increases, meaning more babies were born than people who died. That bucks a national trend, where nearly 3 out of every 4 U.S. counties ended up with natural decreases in 2022.

Utah County’s natural increase of 8,662 is the highest among Utah’s counties but nowhere near Harris County, Texas’s 2022-leading natural increase of 30,117. Carbon, Emery, Garfield and Piute counties all had natural decreases; however, the total decline there was only 61 people among the four counties combined.

What’s the ongoing deal with Salt Lake County?

The Census Bureau data indicates that growth in Salt Lake, Utah’s most populous county, is stagnant. It listed the county’s population at 1,186,257, down 183 people from the 2021 estimate. It finds the county’s natural increase of nearly 7,000 people was wiped out by more people moving out than moving in, otherwise referred to as net migration.

That’s contrary to the Utah Population Committee report, which found that Salt Lake County gained nearly 10,000 residents in 2022, reaching 1.2 million overall. The two sides also found different trends in their respective 2021 reports.

So, why are these numbers so widely different?

It goes into how both estimates are calculated. Both methods take a population base and use available data to determine natural increase and net migration to come up with a new population base; however, they use different statistics to get these numbers.

The Census Bureau’s report uses a mix of different National Center for Health Statistics reports to come up with an estimate on births and deaths. It primarily relies on Internal Revenue Service, Medicare enrollment and Social Security Administration information to piece together migration estimates.

The Utah Population Committee sprinkles in other readily available datasets like building permits and student enrollment information. It’s more detailed — and possibly more precise — because the committee only has to track 29 counties, not the more than 3,000 that the Census Bureau tracks, Harris explained.

She added that they’ve spoken with experts in other U.S. counties, such as King County in Washington, who have also spotted discrepancies in local and federal data.

“They have to do more of a one-size-fits-all approach; whereas the Utah Population Committee, we tend to use more local data and we have local data experts who can help provide context for what we’re seeing in the data,” she said. “We have a lot of confidence in the (committee) estimates for Salt Lake County.”

It’s not just Salt Lake County that the two sides don’t agree on: The Utah Population Committee’s 2022 estimate is almost 20,000 higher than the Census Bureau’s estimate. Had the two agreed, Utah would have tied Idaho for third in percentage increase growth.
 

Source: KSL.com, “Census Data: What counties grew the most in 2022?” March 30, 2023


Land Advisors® Organization is the nation's largest land advisory company. Here is their most recent Market Insights data, providing a comprehensive snapshot of new housing statistics throughout Utah.

Utah's Population Growth Ranking in Census Report

​Utah's population isn't just growing by leaps and bounds percentage-wise, but new data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows Utah's counties/metro areas are now starting to have the largest numeric growth in the nation.
 
Click HERE to read the full report.
 

 

 

“The price momentum will
trend lower, but another
year of double-digit
increase is likely.”

To read the full 2022 Housing Forecast Report, click here.

December Median Housing Prices

The median single-family home price in Salt Lake County climbed to $575,000 in December, a new monthly high and 28% higher than prices a year ago. Multi-family home prices also set a record in December, rising to $405,500, a 22% increase from December 2020. A new report by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® projects that single-family home prices in 2022 will reach $600,000, a 12% increase over the 2021 median home price.

Wasatch Front Home Prices - 2020 v. 2021

The percentage of Wasatch Front homes selling below $500,000 fell to 62% in 2021, a dramatic decline from 2020 when 81% of home sales were below the half-million-dollar mark. Homes selling from $500,000 to $999,999 increased to 34% of market share, up from 17% in 2020. The share of million-dollar home sales increased to 4% of overall sales, up from 2% in 2020. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. Statewide, housing prices increased by 27%, shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978.

Here Are the Top 10 Towns Where First-Time Buyers Can Finally Snag a Home in 2022

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the American dream of homeownership has felt more and more out of reach for many first-time buyers experiencing sticker shock over the high—and still rising—prices.

The Realtor.com® economic research team found the best real estate markets for first-time homebuyers for 2022—places where it’s a bit easier for typically younger, more cash-strapped buyers to become homeowners in areas they would likely want to live in. These towns and small cities tend to be a bit more affordable and offer more homes for sale as well as boast plenty of younger millennial residents, job opportunities, and places to go for dinner or a drink.

These places tend to be suburbs of larger cities, some farther out in more rural areas, where real estate is more affordable.

To compile this list, the team focused on housing affordability (specifically the ratio of list prices to the incomes of 25- to 34-year-olds in the city); availability of homes for sale (measured by the number of active listings per 1,000 households), and forecasted home sales and price growth in 2022 in the metropolitan areas. The latter is a good indicator that homes will appreciate over time.

In addition, these places all have plenty of younger residents (higher percentage of 25- to 34-year-olds compared with the local population); lower unemployment rates in the metro and commute times to work; and plenty of things to do as measured by the number of restaurants and bars per 1,000 households.

The team looked only at towns and cities in the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. (Metros include the main cities and surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller urban areas.) Only one place per state was included to provide geographic diversity.

So where exactly are odds tilting a bit more in favor of first-time homebuyers?

1. Magna, UT

Metropolitan area: Salt Lake City, UT
Median home list price: $355,000*
Forecasted price growth in 2022: 8.5%

It’s no secret why Magna topped our list: It offers homebuyers a great location just 15 miles southwest of popular Salt Lake City—at a surprisingly attractive price. While the median-priced home costs $367,900 in the more rural Magna, which boasts a historic downtown, list prices were a hefty $485,000 in Salt Lake City in November, according to the most recent Realtor.com data.

The town may not be the most popular in the area, but its prices are attracting first-time buyers on a budget who can’t afford Salt Lake City as well as Californians and other out-of-staters looking for deals.

Magna is close to the airport and less than an hour away from some of America’s best skiing. The town is home to the Great Salt Lake State Park, the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere, and the Empress Theatre, a century-old theater that hosts local productions. It’s also in an up-and-coming jobs center.

“We’re pricing people out of the more desirable locations, and it’s making cities like Magna shine a little more,” says Carson. Especially for “first-time homebuyers, families just starting out, where their price range isn’t allowing them to purchase in other areas.”

Most of the homes in Magna are bungalows built in the 1950s and 1960s with anywhere from 1,800 to 2,200 square feet of living space. They are typically three-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom homes with a garage on about a fifth of an acre. This updated two-bedroom, one-bathroom cottage is on the market for $345,000.

Buyers willing to spend a bit more can score new construction, including this four-bedroom, 2.5-bath home with more than 3,700 square feet of living space for $596,195.

2. Chalco, NE

3. Mauldin, SC

4. Beech Grove, IN

5. Portsmouth, VA

6. Cottage Grove, WI

7. Grimes, IA

8. Kuna, ID

9. Ferndale, MI

10. Maitland, FL

To read the full article, click here.


A change to 2022 home loan limits will go a long way in helping home buyers who are dealing with the price increases of the past year.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that the cap for conventional loans will increase substantially in 2022. This change will help home buyers secure mortgages at the lowest rates.

Have house prices finally peaked?
2 Utah cities have hit 'inflection point,' study says

December 19, 2021

SALT LAKE CITY — As home prices have continued to rise across the country, especially in the West, a new study suggests prices are "poised to flatten" in five of the "most overvalued markets" in the nation.

Those markets include two cities in Utah and several other metros in Idaho, Texas and Arizona.

That's according to research released this month by professors at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.

Where are home prices peaking?

"A pricing 'crown' is developing in the five most overvalued markets: Boise, Idaho; Austin, Texas; Ogden and Provo, Utah; and Phoenix," a Florida Atlantic University article published Dec. 2 states. "That's an indication that home values in those areas may be leveling off."

"A crowning in prices is common when markets reach the peak of their current housing cycles," said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist and associate dean at Florida Atlantic University's College of Business, one of the researchers who conducted the study. "It does appear that several areas around the country are at an inflection point."

In September, researchers at Florida Atlantic and Florida International universities ranked Boise as the nation's No. 1 "overvalued" housing market, calculating the premium homebuyers were paying in the 2021 market at 80.6%.

Three Utah cities and other Western metros ranked close behind Boise. Here's how the top 10 rankings most recently broke out, according to the university's online tool.

  1. Boise, where homes are selling at an 80.51% premium.
  2. Austin, Texas, at a 57.13% premium.
  3. Ogden, at a 54.46% premium.
  4. Provo, at a 49.18% premium.
  5. Phoenix, at a 48.94% premium.
  6. Spokane, Washington, at a 47.61% premium.
  7. Las Vegas, at a 47.42% premium.
  8. Detroit, at a 47.28% premium.
  9. Salt Lake City, at a 47% premium.
  10. Atlanta, at a 45.17% premium.

"The danger in buying into an overvalued market is that you may have to own the home longer to realize significant financial returns," said Eli Beracha, a real estate professor for Florida International University. "Once prices level off, reselling the property for a higher return is very difficult."

2022 housing market predictions

Even though the research out of Florida may give those aspiring to buy a home in the West hope, other predictors don't see some Western markets slowing down headed into 2022. The site Realtor.com recently ranked Salt Lake City as the No. 1 housing market positioned for growth in 2022, forecasting the metro to see a 15.2% year-over-year sales growth and an 8.5% year-over-year increase in prices. Boise projections ranked close behind Salt Lake City with a forecasted 12.9% in year-over-year sales growth and 7.9% in year-over-year price growth.

That's even though Utah and Idaho have already faced record-shattering years as the West's housing market continues to rage. In Utah, experts have warned of a "severely imbalanced" housing market as demand continues to woefully outpace supply.

Though the housing market has cooled slightly headed into the fall and winter — a typical seasonal pattern — housing experts do not predict a market crash or see any indicators of a "bubble" in today's market conditions. Unlike what led up to the 2007 market crash spurred the Great Recession — when the U.S. had overbuilt housing and lending practices leading to a subprime mortgage crisis — housing experts say demand continues to outpace supply, especially in rapidly growing areas like Utah, Idaho and other Western states.

Source: https://www.ksl.com/article/50312592/have-house-prices-finally-peaked-2-utah-cities-have-hit-inflection-point-study-says

The Realtor.com® data gurus have crunched the numbers to forecast which housing markets will generate the most heat in 2022. These 10 towns are where we predict prices and the number of home sales will rise the most in the coming year.

Source: Realtor®.com. December 8, 2021