Census data:
What counties grew the most in Utah in 2022?
March 30, 2023
SALT LAKE CITY — A new county emerged as the fastest growing in Utah, according to new population estimates data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Tooele County, at 4.2%, led all 29 of the state’s counties in percentage growth between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, besting Daggett County’s 3.8% increase, according to the bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates. Utah County, which led the state in that category in the 2021 report, retained its title as the state leader in absolute growth, adding over 16,000 new residents to push the countywide estimate over 700,000 people for the first time.
The report adds that Salt Lake County remains Utah’s most populated county with nearly 1.19 million residents, even though it was one of only three counties to lose residents last year. However, local experts say that differences in how the Census Bureau and how the Utah Population Committee calculate data may explain why the trends are vastly different from a state report that came out in December.
Utah’s growth in 2022
The Census Bureau initially reported in late December that Utah’s growth slowed down a bit in 2022. The Beehive State gained about 41,687 residents from July 2021 to July 2022, a 1.2% increase. That was enough to land 10th in percentage increase among the 50 states. Utah led the country in percentage growth between the 2010 and 2020 censuses and placed second in the 2021 estimate.
Utah counties cracked the top 10 in either absolute or percentage growth this year, according to the report. Tooele County’s 4.2% jump was no match for Whitman County in eastern Washington, which rose 10.1% over the past year. Daggett (3.8%), Iron and Washington (3.2% each), and Juab (3.1%) counties rounded out Utah’s top five.
Utah County’s absolute growth of 16,628 people helped its population grow by 2.4%. Washington (6,204), Tooele (3,200), Weber (2,973) and Cache (2,744) counties rounded out the top five, according to the Census Bureau.
“Even though the growth has slowed a little bit, we still have the same trend of Utah County and Washington County really driving the statewide growth,” said Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, as she reviewed the data. “Those two counties account for more than half of the statewide growth, so those are counties that we’re always watching.”
While the growth slowed down a bit, 25 of Utah’s 29 counties, or 86%, experienced natural increases, meaning more babies were born than people who died. That bucks a national trend, where nearly 3 out of every 4 U.S. counties ended up with natural decreases in 2022.
Utah County’s natural increase of 8,662 is the highest among Utah’s counties but nowhere near Harris County, Texas’s 2022-leading natural increase of 30,117. Carbon, Emery, Garfield and Piute counties all had natural decreases; however, the total decline there was only 61 people among the four counties combined.
What’s the ongoing deal with Salt Lake County?
The Census Bureau data indicates that growth in Salt Lake, Utah’s most populous county, is stagnant. It listed the county’s population at 1,186,257, down 183 people from the 2021 estimate. It finds the county’s natural increase of nearly 7,000 people was wiped out by more people moving out than moving in, otherwise referred to as net migration.
That’s contrary to the Utah Population Committee report, which found that Salt Lake County gained nearly 10,000 residents in 2022, reaching 1.2 million overall. The two sides also found different trends in their respective 2021 reports.
So, why are these numbers so widely different?
It goes into how both estimates are calculated. Both methods take a population base and use available data to determine natural increase and net migration to come up with a new population base; however, they use different statistics to get these numbers.
The Census Bureau’s report uses a mix of different National Center for Health Statistics reports to come up with an estimate on births and deaths. It primarily relies on Internal Revenue Service, Medicare enrollment and Social Security Administration information to piece together migration estimates.
The Utah Population Committee sprinkles in other readily available datasets like building permits and student enrollment information. It’s more detailed — and possibly more precise — because the committee only has to track 29 counties, not the more than 3,000 that the Census Bureau tracks, Harris explained.
She added that they’ve spoken with experts in other U.S. counties, such as King County in Washington, who have also spotted discrepancies in local and federal data.
“They have to do more of a one-size-fits-all approach; whereas the Utah Population Committee, we tend to use more local data and we have local data experts who can help provide context for what we’re seeing in the data,” she said. “We have a lot of confidence in the (committee) estimates for Salt Lake County.”
It’s not just Salt Lake County that the two sides don’t agree on: The Utah Population Committee’s 2022 estimate is almost 20,000 higher than the Census Bureau’s estimate. Had the two agreed, Utah would have tied Idaho for third in percentage increase growth.
Source: KSL.com, “Census Data: What counties grew the most in 2022?” March 30, 2023
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